by JOHN CHOWN AND BINNE VRIES
Generally, lowering taxes on companies should increase activity, but from what source? If new business (including diverted foreign business) is at the expense of England & Wales,
then given that most of the votes are there, the UK government is unlikely to agree. They may be more relaxed about business that would otherwise have gone to the Republic where tax reductions have proved to have a dramatic impact on the economy (the 12.5% rate, introduced under EU pressure, was preceded by substantial specific exemptions from tax).
A simple reduction in the rate of tax which appears to be envisaged would be a great headline catching measure, particularly for foreign investors, but will raise two problems. First, existing businesses will seek to arrange that more of the profits will arise in
the favoured location without actually changing the substance of their operations. This will raise problems of transfer pricing and the whole battery of complex anti-avoidance legislation, only too familiar to international practitioners, would have to be applied.
What good would the change do? As has been demonstrated many times, up to
a point, reducing tax rates can actually increase revenue. Certainly, measures to slash rates (from around 50%) and broaden the base, such as were taken by Geoffrey Howe, proved very successful, but most of the easy benefits have now been obtained and present UK
rates seem very near optimum levels in terms of pure revenue raising.
Based on international evidence, we are sceptical about whether broad-brush regional incentives are economically efficient. If we may make a positive suggestion, , what we really need in both Northern Ireland and Scotland (and arguably in the UK as a whole) are carefully designed and targeted, simple to understand, specific incentives for small businesses (remember that many of these are unincorporated) starting up or recruiting new employees. This would be less controversial at both domestic and EU level than competing for foreign investment. The reduction in tax take from the business should then, we hope, be more than balanced by the very substantial revenue turnaround when an increase in employment turns Social Security beneficiaries into taxpayers. The newly employed will also have more to spend, increasing the yield of Value Added Tax.
This brings us to the second problem. Neither country really has an independent budget. Scotland enjoys a Treasury block grant of £30 billion per annum and any reduction in the
corporation tax take from either would automatically cause a reduction in its grant. Scotland business is said to pay £5 billion of corporation tax (ignoring the sensitive subject of North Sea oil) and it has been calculated that a reduction rate to 12.5% would cost Scotland £2.6 billion while it is not clear that they would get back the secondary benefits just referred to. A report by the NI Economic Group suggests (tentatively) that the cost of a change in Northern Ireland would be £2-300 million.
These figures take no account of the income tax, social security and VAT consequences of any changes and these would have to be taken into account very carefully. However, as neither country can afford to lose net revenue, we need a much more careful analysis of which revenue benefits accrue to the UK and which would actually benefit the particular territory. If this were merely a domestic problem, it could be solved with mutual good will backed by very careful calculations but we have to take into account European Union rules on State aid and the non-legal binding Code of Conduct for business taxation.
If we apply European Court of Justice criteria (the Azores judgment) it would seem that we would first have to ensure that the relevant decisions were taken by the separate governments of Northern Ireland and Scotland rather than London. More significantly, though, the loss of revenue would have to be borne by the territory concerned and could
not be compensated for by central government subsidies. This leaves an interesting question would the grant simply be reduced by the loss of corporation tax revenue or would the calculation take into account increases in the take from employment and value added taxes? In any case, to comply with these conditions, there would have to be a substantial reshaping of the budget arrangements and a probably a significant delegation of overall budgetary powers to the government concerned.
To conclude, the idea is an interesting one, but will have to clear many hurdles. As to the EU issues. Attitudes may be change (and we fear not for the better) as even more complex
issues about the relationship between monetary, fiscal and political union develop within the eurozone.
THE AUTHORS
John Chown, an economist and international tax adviser, a co-founder of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Secretary to the International Tax Specialist Group, has done extensive
Ministerial level work on tax policy and financial markets in the EU, Russia, Thailand and elsewhere. His colleague Binne Vries is a Dutch international tax lawyer who has worked for many years in the United Kingdom and now lives in Belfast. www.chowndewhurst.com